2023 NBA Lottery: Odds For Each Team To Land Top Pick

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hacheman@therx.com
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TEAMRECORDWIN%LOTTERY PROBABILITY
Detroit17-65.20714.0%
Houston22-60.26814.0%
San Antonio22-60.26814.0%
Charlotte27-55.32912.5%
Portland33-49.40210.5%
Orlando34-48.4159.0%
Indiana35-47.4276.8%
Washington35-47.4276.7%
Utah37-45.4514.5%
Dallas138-44.4633.0%
Chicago240-42.4881.8%
Oklahoma City40-42.4881.7%
Toronto41-41.5001.0%
New Orleans42-40.5120.5
 

hacheman@therx.com
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What's the selection process for the lottery?​

This is where things get a bit more technical. Ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are put inside a machine, symbolizing the 14 lottery teams. Within those 14 balls, there's a possibility of 1,001 four-number combinations. Those combinations are then split up between the 14 lottery teams. To determine the No. 1 pick, individual ping pong balls are selected to create a four-number combination. The team that matches up with the combination chosen is then awarded the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. That same process is then done again to determine picks second through fourth.

Once that process is completed to determine the top four picks of the draft, the remaining order (spots 5-14) is set in inverse order of their 2022-23 regular season record. In other words, the teams with the worst remaining records pick higher than those who finished with better records.
 

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I'll say San Antonio
 

hacheman@therx.com
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I'm hoping any team outside of the top 3 tankers

Would love to see Orlando hit it to team wembanyama with rookie of year Paulo Banchero
 

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San Antonio invented tanking and invented load management. Popovich is a dick. Too bad for everyone. At least the kid doesn't have to pay state taxes.
 

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I hate seeing the Spurs get it

They didn't have the NBA's worst record but they were the team tanking the most at the end
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Also shows you exactly how rig this thing is

All five teams stay in the top five you can't tell me not one team outside of the top five couldn't get lucky and move up the odds weren't that much different
 

hacheman@therx.com
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The full 2023 draft lottery order:

1. San Antonio Spurs

2. Charlotte Hornets

3. Portland Trail Blazers

4. Houston Rockets

5. Detroit Pistons

6. Orlando Magic

7. Indiana Pacers

8. Washington Wizards

9. Utah Jazz

10. Dallas Mavericks

11. Orlando Magic

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

13. Toronto Raptors
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Law of averages at least one of those those teams 6-14 jumps up

No doubt in my mind now that this year was decided manually ahead of time
 

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